France swaps Breton for power

PANIC IN THE BERLAYMONT: The price of coffee in the Berlaymont cafeteria is rising by €0.05, while the cost of a plat du jour is up by €0.40, due in part to the “higher cost of raw materials,” a poster in the canteen reads.
GOOD TUESDAY MORNING from the train to Strasbourg, where I’ll link up with Playbook’s Sarah Wheaton and Parliament reporter Max Griera, who are primed for today’s big announcement of the next European Commission — if and when it happens. POLITICO is running a live blog here.
JOURNEY FROM (AND TO) HELL: A train-load of Parliament officials and assistants spent 11 hours getting to Strasbourg Monday, after being stranded in Namur, taking a bus to Ciney and then two trains via Luxembourg. But despite that epic journey, they won’t get to see Viktor Orbán perform in the plenary, after the Hungarian PM canceled his visit due to floods.
Who will be in Strasbourg today: Hundreds of protesting workers, who are calling on the EU to take urgent action against the exploitation of subcontractors.
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WILL SHE OR WON’T SHE? That’s the question on everyone’s lips this morning, as Ursula von der Leyen glides into a meeting with the European Parliament’s political leadership poised to reveal — or not — her plans for the next College of Commissioners, which she has kept closely guarded for two whole months.
Expectant mood: After meeting with von der Leyen on Monday, Parliament President Roberta Metsola publicly pressured the Commission chief to today reveal not just her College structure, but also the names attached to the portfolios “as our new rules foresee.” Parliament spokeswoman Delphine Colard said: “It will be up to Mrs. von der Leyen to decide how far she can go.”
Careful choreography: As von der Leyen gives MEPs insights into her plans behind closed doors, ambassadors back in Brussels will also be meeting, primed and ready to approve the names of the next EU commissioners — as long as the French and Slovenian nomination letters have officially arrived by then.
Waiting for Golob: Despite all the French theatrics which saw Paris ditch incumbent Thierry Breton for Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Séjourné, tiny Slovenia — ruled by Prime Minister Robert Golob — remains the stumbling block to getting a legally watertight list of commissioner candidates today.
Was it all a ruse? Breton’s bombshell resignation, announced on X on Monday morning, heavily suggests the Commission’s delay last week — citing Slovenia — was merely an excuse to gain time to sort out France. “In hindsight it seemed that the French discussion playing in the background was more important and the Slovenian drama was more of a pretext,” one EU official told my colleague Barbara Moens.
Whatever it takes to get it out today: “There will be a proposal from von der Leyen either way,” the official predicted. “If there is no Slovenian letter, von der Leyen’s proposal will be subtle enough to take that into account.” Another EU official said it wasn’t a problem for von der Leyen to announce all 26 names before the letters with their portfolios formally drop.
Cheeky workarounds: Brussels is full of talk about the kinds of shrewd ploys von der Leyen could use today to get around the Slovenian hiccup. For instance, some say she could present all the names except Marta Kos’, and still reveal Slovenia’s portfolio.
Reading the tea leaves: The other hint that we’re going to hear the big announcement is that desired portfolios are starting to leak out in the national press. The Irish Times reported Dublin’s pick Michael McGrath wants innovation or justice; Dutch broadcaster NOS wrote Wopke Hoekstra will get the “climate and clean growth” portfolio (which sounds weirdly medical); Slovenia’s Golob last night hinted he wanted something linked to enlargement.
Small man, big portfolio: Elisa Braun and Clea Caulcutt have this stonking story about what France is set to gain from sacrificing Breton: a much larger portfolio for his replacement Séjourné, who would be an executive vice president covering all sorts of competitiveness domains, from trade, research and innovation, economy and financial services to the capital markets union.
You give me Breton, I give you power: Remember, Breton accused von der Leyen in his incendiary missive of conducting “a political trade off [for] an allegedly more influential portfolio” with French President Emmanuel Macron. Breton was reportedly being lined up for a smaller brief covering industry and strategic autonomy.
Gender reveal party: If we do get a list of names attached to portfolios today, it will reveal not just the new power balance in Brussels, but also to what extent von der Leyen has managed to balance out factors of gender, geography and competence and in her new executive team. 
Hopes and prayers: All the Commission was saying Monday was that she “hopes” to announce her top team in Strasbourg today. It would be doubly ironic if even after the French fireworks, Slovenia proves the stumbling block. And talking of that French drama … 
VDL CRUSHES THE GREAT DISSENTER: Breton’s ousting was an unequivocal power move — deposing no less than France’s European commissioner — which rid Ursula von der Leyen of her fiercest internal critic, write Barbara Moens and Nicholas Vinocur in this must-read piece this morning.
From fighting X, to an ex: Breton claimed von der Leyen’s move to dispatch him was “further testimony to questionable governance” by his erstwhile boss, in what was just the latest in a long list of criticisms he’d directed her way. To speak only of the last year, Breton accused von der Leyen of favoritism, questioned her support within the EPP, attacked her for campaigning — and then reportedly got slapped down by the Commission for squaring up to X’s Elon Musk without coordinating with her.
Fly on the wall stuff: Nick, Elisa and Laura Kayali take you inside the stormy VDL-Breton relationship over the past five years, running up to the moment last week when von der Leyen dialed Emmanuel Macron’s number and told him she could no longer work with the French commissioner.
And then there were none: Of the handful of commissioners who were the toughest on von der Leyen during her first term, none are left standing. Von der Leyen could have kept Socialist rival Nicolas Schmit in Brussels by giving the Luxembourg government an offer they couldn’t refuse. Did she? Nope.
VDL wins: “She is taking no prisoners or bullshit from anyone, and it’s a shot across the bow that she’s in the power seat in case others get testy,” said an EU official, adding that it was “an impressive display of political brinkswomanship with member states where she comes out as the winner.”
Playbook sidebar: The EU treaties clearly set out that member countries are the ones who get to nominate commissioners. What has played out this summer is an incredible politicization of that process by the Commission president-in-waiting.
K, thanks, bye: Last night von der Leyen coldly tweeted that she’s “taken note” of Breton’s resignation and curtly thanked him, before kicking his responsibilities over to Margrethe Vestager, who’s enjoying a surprising swan song (and has lost no love with Breton herself). Vestager plunged the knife into Breton in comments to the FT, saying: “I do not recognise the picture that he’s painting” of von der Leyen. Maybe it’s cos the picture frame was empty?
The troll gets trolled: Quitting your job is never easy. What do you say, how do you say it? Breton’s resignation might not have been de bon ton, a Brussels-based recruitment company suggested on Monday. Using the commissioner’s empty-frame template to deliver some tips, Mavence suggests avoiding “any negativity, especially toward your future ex-boss.” Or you could tell ’em to “Go f*ck your own face” via meme, Elon Musk-style.
Right to be forgotten: The Commission’s website, swiftly updated, now lists Breton as a former commissioner. 
BERLAYMONT’S “NO COMMENT” FACTORY: After 40 minutes of stonewalling by the European Commission’s press service on the Breton announcement on Monday, with spokespeople refusing to comment on anything the exiting commissioner wrote in his sensational letter, Die Presse’s Oliver Grimm spoke for many journalists when he raged against the failure to answer questions. Watch the exchange here.
“WHAT IS GENDER BALANCE IN FRENCH?” quipped the Greens’ co-leader Bas Eickhout, highlighting the fact that Paris had replaced a man with … a man. Séjourné is not a woman, but he does slightly correct the College’s lack of diversity in another way, as he’s the first openly gay commissioner since — to Playbooks’ recollection — Peter Mandelson.
 
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Donald Trump said he needed more security in the wake of the second assassination attempt against him. The Republican presidential candidate said in an X live chat that he’d asked Joe Biden for “more people in my detail” and the president was “very nice today.”
Secret Service fail? Suspect Ryan Wesley Routh allegedly waited at Trump’s golf club for 12 hours with a rifle, according to court documents, with my Stateside colleagues reporting the incident has reignited longstanding concerns that Trump’s golfing habit makes him vulnerable to attackers. The latest close call is “a failure, 100 percent” of the Secret Service, security expert Carrie Bachner tells Betsy Woodruff Swan.
Bottom line: “The U.S. is facing the most complex, dynamic, and dangerous threat environment I’ve experienced,” John Cohen, a former senior Homeland Security intelligence and counterterrorism official, tells my Stateside colleagues in this big read.
PUSH TO GET MIGRATION ON EUCO AGENDA: Despite once again becoming a hot topic around the EU, migration isn’t yet on the draft agenda for October’s European Council summit, my colleague Barbara Moens writes in to report.
German inspo: At a meeting of EU ambassadors on Monday, a number of countries, including Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, demanded a fully fledged discussion among EU leaders on the topic, particularly after Germany imposed new border controls, two EU diplomats said. It’s a wait-and-see for now.
What is on the agenda: The mid-October summit will focus on Ukraine, the Middle East and how to make Europe more competitive, according to the draft agenda seen by Barbara.
HOMOPHOBIC MEP SOUGHT BY PROSECUTOR: Recently elected anti-LGBTQ+ Lithuanian MEP Petras Gražulis seems to have found a safe haven from prosecution in the European Parliament, after making homophobic remarks in his home country.
Hunted: Gražulis is accused of publicly using derogatory language when talking with representatives of the LGBTQ+ community in Lithuania’s parliament back in May 2022. The country’s prosecutor general on Monday wrote to Roberta Metsola asking the Parliament president to revoke Gražulis’ legal immunity, my colleague Giedrė Peseckyte reports.
Look who’s out and proud: Gražulis’ only moment in the Brussels spotlight so far came when he wandered around with his phone out looking like a tourist behind Ursula von der Leyen as she learnt the result of the Parliament vote in July.
GIVE PIS YOUR PAY CHECK: After Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) lost millions of złoty in government cash, it’s now turning to its elected officials to fill the party coffers. The deputy leader ordered every PiS MEP to kick in 5,000 złoty (€1,170) a month (about a 10th of their monthly salary), while Polish MPs and senators are expected to send 1,000 złoty (also about a 10th of their earnings), reports Wojciech Kość.
THE LEFTY GETTING LESSONS FROM MELONI: U.K. PM Keir Starmer wants to learn how to tackle irregular migration from his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni. He should brace for controversy, write POLITICO’s Andrew McDonald and Hannah Roberts.
KURSK MUST-READ: Kyiv launched its Kursk incursion despite objections from some of Ukraine’s top army commanders, reports POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer in this exclusive.
HOW THE KREMLIN GETS YOUR CASH: Ordinary Europeans are helping Vladimir Putin pay for his war every time they fill up their car, get on a plane or put the heating on, a new report set to be released today will say. According to research by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the Center for the Study of Democracy, seen by POLITICO, G7+ countries in the first half of this year alone have bought $2 billion of fuel made from Russian oil from three Turkish refineries.
In through the back door: EU sanctions ban member countries from buying seaborne shipments of Russian oil — but third countries like Turkey and India are exploiting a loophole, purchasing discounted crude from Moscow and turning it into diesel, petrol and other products before sending it on to the Continent. Ukraine wants Brussels to act.
Guns for gas: The analysis finds the tax paid by Russia’s energy companies for fuel that wound up in the EU and a handful of other Western countries is enough for the Kremlin to pay for an additional 6,200 soldiers a month to fight in Ukraine. Read the full story from my colleague Gabriel Gavin here.
RIGHT ON CUE: Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the Russian army to increase by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million active military personnel. Putin’s decree, set to enter into force on Dec. 1 this year, would make Russia’s the second-largest army in the world after China’s.
HUNGARY KICKS THE CAN ON $50B LOAN TO UKRAINE: Hungary signaled on Monday that it wants to wait for the U.S. election results before agreeing to one of the three options on the table to overhaul EU sanctions to get the U.S. on board with a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, Morning Financial Services reports.
Going it alone? With the G7 loan on ice, the FT reports that Europe is planning to provide up to €40 billion in new loans for Ukraine by the end of the year, regardless of whether the U.S. chips in.
NATO UNDER PRESSURE TO RESPOND TO RUSSIAN DRONE INCURSION: NATO countries are increasingly concerned about Russia sending drones and missiles across their airspace, after recent incidents in Romania, Latvia and Poland. “NATO needs to take a clear position in this, condemning any Russian violation of NATO’s airspace and showing willingness to support individual allies if needed,” Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans told Stuart Lau on Monday after a meeting in Lithuania.
VAPE RED TAPE TAKES SHAPE: EU countries should extend smoking bans to cover more outdoor areas — and expand them to vaping, the Commission will announce later today.
No vaping near children and animals: According to a draft guidance document obtained by my Morning Health Care colleague Mari Eccles, the EU executive will encourage countries to prohibit smoking and vaping on café terraces, outside hospitals, at bus and train stops and at zoos. The Commission especially wants to crack down on vaping among youths, so highlights playgrounds, schoolyards and universities as other potential places for a ban.
All hot air: Brussels can’t actually force countries to introduce these measures, Mari writes. But the Commission will argue that its last guidance on smoking (which came out in 2009, before the vape era) saw a fall in exposure.
PLAYBOOK FOLLOWUP — PARLIAMENT EXPANSION GREEN LIT: The powerful European Parliament Bureau made up of President Roberta Metsola and other senior MEPs unanimously approved a plan to expand the DG for internal policy into a total of four new directorates-general, two people told Playbook. We previewed the plans on Monday.
EU FORMS INVESTOR CLUB: Brussels is setting up a club of “trusted” tech investors who could help with the EU’s push to fund more high-risk tech ventures, reports Pieter Haeck.
RED SEA CALL: It’s time for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to step in to convince the Houthis to halt their attacks in the Red Sea, argues the Atlantic Council’s Elisabeth Braw in this story for POLITICO.
**POLITICO Live Sustainable Future Week is back! Happening on December 3-5, get ready for an action-packed week. Featuring POLITICO newsletters and podcasts, participate in onsite-only interactive Q&A sessions for deeper insights. With more time to explore critical topics and network, this event is designed to keep you ahead in a rapidly changing landscape. Apply today and join us onsite!**
— European Parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg; President Roberta Metsola presides over the Conference of Presidents at 9 a.m., when Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will present the structure of the new Commission. POLITICO live blog here.
— Metsola also participates in the Conference of Committee Chairs at 3 p.m.
— Other Parliament highlights: Former ECB chief Mario Draghi will outline his blueprint for boosting Europe’s competitiveness at 1:30 p.m., with MEPs debating the report’s findings after his address (watch) … Equality Commissioner Helena Dalli discusses the situation in Venezuela … MEPs debate the war in Gaza and the situation in the Middle East with the Commission. Full agenda.
— Weekly European Commission College meeting, followed by readout. Watch.
— Ursula von der Leyen receives Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout, co-chairs of the Greens/EFA Group in the European Parliament.
— Informal meeting of the EU’s research ministers in Budapest; arrivals from 7:45 a.m. … roundtable at 9 a.m. Watch.
— EU ambassadors meet in Coreper II in Brussels.
— EU High Representative Josep Borrell in the United Arab Emirates: holds bilateral meetings.
— The European Court of Human Rights issues a final ruling in the case of Pindo Mulla v. Spain, concerning blood transfusions administered without consent to a Jehovah’s Witness during emergency surgery at 11 a.m.
WEATHER: In Brussels, high of 20C, sunny. In Strasbourg, 20C and cloudy.
STRASBOURG POOL SHUTDOWN: If you’d planned to go for a dip in between plenary sessions, we have bad news: Piscine du Wacken, the pool closest to the Parliament, is closed all week for maintenance. Here’s an alternative.
NEW JOB 1: The European Commission’s Mina Andreeva (a POLITICO 28 alum), will join Parliament President Roberta Metsola’s team to work on strategic comms.
NEW JOB 2: Tim Rühlig joined the EU Institute for Security Studies as senior analyst for the Global China portfolio. He was previously a China fellow at the Commission’s IDEA, focusing on tech and innovation.
BRUSSELS MUNICIPAL ELECTION DEBATES: Ahead of Brussels’ municipal elections on Oct. 13, Belgian news outlet BX1 kicked off a series of debates between the city’s main political families, with the first happening on Monday in Saint-Gilles. There’s a debate in Etterbeek this evening at 6:30 p.m. Details here.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Ioan-Rareş Bogdan; Former MEPs Richard Ashworth and Amjad Bashir; InnoGage’s Daniel Van Lerberghe; UNIVERCELLS’ Begoña Sampedro; Deputy General of ETUC Katja Lehto-Komulainen; Former Europol chief Rob Wainwright; The Guardian’s Richard Wolffe; Matthew Boyse, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs; Policy Editor at Carbon Pulse Sara Stefanini; Narendra Modi, PM of India; Georgia Brooks, founder and CEO of The Nine and POLITICO 28 alum.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: Max Griera, Sarah Wheaton, Giedre Peseckyte, Giovanna Faggionato, Gregorio Sorgi, Gabriel Gavin, Mari Eccles, Stuart Lau, Barbara Moens, Elisa Braun, Ellen Boonen, Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
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